Clark A. Lindsey at HobbySpace has updated his more-than-prognostication time line, predicting more humans will have traveled into Space commercially than by any other method sooner rather than later.We agree. No blind optimist, Mr. Lindsey keeps up with the game, and writes:
I should point out that I deal almost entirely with predictions for successful developments. It is trivial to predict that this or that space project will fail. There are a million ways for a new business of any kind to go off the road, and even more for a new space business. There are only a few routes to success and they are difficult to follow. Predicting losers in the commercial space race is no more fun or informative than predicting horses to lose at the racetrack. I'm much more interested in the details of how and why space projects succeed or fail. Many people seem to think there is some sort of profound physics or economic barrier to low cost spaceflight. However, so far, those ventures that have failed have done so because of mundane reasons usually involving a failure to raise enough capital.
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