Jeff Foust
Space Review
It would be difficult for one to be familiar with current events in space over the last few years, or even the last few months, and not be aware of the perception that the United States and China are, or will soon enter, a full-fledged space race against each other. On more than one occasion in the last several months NASA administrator Mike Griffin warned that he believed that China would land humans on the Moon before the United States returned (see “Defending Constellation”, The Space Review, February 4, 2008). After Griffin discussed his interpretation of Chinese capabilities at a hearing of the House Science and Technology Committee last month, one committee member, Congressman Nick Lampson (D-TX), drew parallels to the launch of Sputnik, saying, “I believe personally that we may be in a greater period of challenge today than we were in 1957; we just don’t hear the beeps.” One presidential candidate, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), even made a tangential reference to China’s growing capabilities—and a potential loss of American capabilities—in a campaign speech last week in Houston: “I don’t want to be sending Americans into space on a Chinese or Russian manned vehicle.”
On the surface, these concerns are understandable and even reasonable. China has marked a number of major space milestones in recent years, from the launch of its first manned mission, Shenzhou 5, in 2003 to the launch last year of Chang’e-1, its first robotic lunar orbiter. China is also undergoing a dramatic economic revolution that can be called miraculous with little risk of hyperbole, becoming a massive exporter of all varieties of goods and enriching hundreds of millions of Chinese. If China has the ability to transform its society so radically, many argue, there’s little reason to doubt it can become a dominant power in space as well, if the nation’s leaders so desire.
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